Market access

The economy is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2022; Access to the Eurobond market is shrinking – Standard Bank

Despite the challenges, Ghana’s economy is expected to grow by 6.2% in 2022 and then by 6.8% in 2023, Standard Bank, the parent company of Stanbic Bank, has revealed.

This is in line with forecasts from the International Monetary Fund which also pegs the country’s growth rate at 6.2% in 2022.

He said the government had made significant progress on vaccinations and further easing of COVID-19 restrictions would boost demand and supply within the economy.

On a quarterly basis, the mining and quarrying subsector grew by 16.9% in 2021, compared to an average contraction of 10.7% in the 6 months to June 2021, implying that the growth momentum could to resume.

“On a quarterly basis, the mining and quarrying sub-sector grew by 16.9%, compared to an average contraction of 10.7% over the 6-month period to June 21, implying that growth momentum could Gold production from underground ore sources is expected to start from January 22, 2022 at the Obuasi mine New contracts to conduct mining activities at the Bibiani mine have already been awarded, which should stimulate investment in the sector over the next few years.

“However, current global supply chain challenges could constrain the growth of the cocoa and industry sub-sectors in 2022,” he added.

Balance of payments – imports likely to be higher

The report said the current account deficit is expected to widen to 5.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, from 3.9% expected for 2021.

“While we expect a recovery in gold production and exports over the coming year, we are simultaneously seeing a notable increase in imports of goods. As the economy continues to recover from the pandemic, the non-oil imports could increase further.Furthermore, given the expansionary stance of the government’s fiscal policy, imports of capital goods are likely to remain high over the next two years.Rising international oil prices could also continue to widen the trade balance.

Furthermore, “cocoa production and exports could still be dragged down due to fertilizer shortages. In Q2:21, combined cocoa and gold exports accounted for approximately 55.3% of total merchandise exports. »

Access to the Eurobond market is shrinking

He again stressed that the country’s ability to tap into the Eurobond market could further decline, while foreign exchange reserves could remain under pressure unless the government acquires other sources of external financing.

“While global risk could worsen further in the first half of 2022, and Ghana’s ability to tap into the Eurobond market could decline further. Foreign exchange reserves could remain under pressure in 2022, unless the government acquires other sources of bilateral and multilateral external funding.